Korea Won to Weaken to 1,400 as Recession Looms, Nomura Reports

정보당국은 일단 미네르바의 신원은 확인한 것으로 알려졌다.

""나이는50대초반이고증권사에다녔고또해외에서생활한경험이있는남자"로파악""-> 성명 나이 뿐만이 아니라 살아온 세월까지 뒷조사 다 끝났다 .우리는 대략 불법이라도 우리가 원하는 것을 얻기 위해서 다 한다. 한번 까불어 봐라.

청와대 관계자는 "그가 활동을 재개하고 그 이후에 허위 사실을 유포한다고 판단될 경우 적극적으로 대응할 계획"이라고 밝혔다.

힘있는 사람이 얘기하면 공약,똑똑하고 힘없는 사람이 얘기하면 허위사실 유포.|

Korea Won to Weaken to 1,400 as Recession Looms, Nomura Reports

By Kim Kyoungwha

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won will weaken 5 percent through the first quarter of 2009 as Asia's fourth- largest economy experiences its first recession in a decade, Nomura International Ltd. said.

The Korean currency, Asia's worst performer this year, will decline to 1,400 per U.S. dollar by March 31 before recovering to 1,200 by the end of next year, according to a report issued on Nov. 7 by Nomura's economist Kwon Young Sun. China's $586 billion stimulus plan unveiled yesterday doesn't change Kwon's view on Korea, he said in an interview today.

``The won still faces further downward pressure for an extended period of time,'' Hong Kong-based Kwon said. ``We expect Korea's gross domestic product to experience a mild recession, with negative quarterly growth in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009.''

The won traded at 1,331.25 as of 11:56 a.m. in Seoul, compared with 1,328 at the end of last week, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The currency slumped 30 percent this year, the worst among the 10 most-traded Asian currencies outside of Japan.

South Korean policy makers in the past month cut interest rates at an unprecedented pace, guaranteed lenders' debts, secured an Oct. 30 agreement from the Federal Reserve to provide $30 billion in U.S. currency and announced an $11 billion stimulus plan. The economy expanded 0.6 percent last quarter from the previous three months, the slowest rate in four years.

Risk Remains

``The risk remains of further large and unexpected capital outflows which could create an adverse feedback loop between domestic financial conditions and real activity,'' Kwon said. ``We would expect small and highly leveraged companies, especially in the construction sector, to struggle financially.''

Foreign capital will return to Korea only after corporate default risk recedes, as a gradual economic recovery begins in the second quarter of 2009, Kwon wrote. Overseas investors pulled $37 billion out of Korean equities this year.

A depreciating currency will ``do more good than harm'' to the economy over the longer term, the economist said.

``From an external sustainability perspective, a weaker won should keep domestic asset prices attractive to foreign investors,'' Kwon said. ``When global demand returns, this would then help increase Korea's foreign exchange reserves and net foreign assets.''

Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for South Korea's credit rating to ``negative'' from ``stable,'' citing concerns foreign-exchange reserves may decline as the nation faces the biggest crisis since it needed an International Monetary Fund bailout in 1997. South Korea's foreign-exchange reserves fell for a seventh month to $212.3 billion in October.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: November 9, 2008 22:12 EST

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