S E C R E T SEOUL 001169

From: Aftenposten

(http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/wikileaks/article3965236.ece
)Date: 24.7.2009

S E C R E T SEOUL 001169SIPDISE.O. 12958:DECL: 07/24/2019TAGS: PREL, KN, KSSUBJECT: A/S KURT CAMPBELL큆 MEETING WITH SENIOR SECRETARYTO THE PRESIDENT FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND NATIONAL SECURITY KIM SUNG-HWANREF: SEOUL 01080 Classified By: Ambassador Stephens. Reasons 1.4(b/d)1. (S)SUMMARY: NSA Kim told A/S Campbell during a July 20 meetingthat the ROK believed the North Korean regime could "hold onfor sometime" after the death of Kim Jung-il. In the case of atotal collapse, Kim unambiguously stated that North Koreanterritory is part of the ROK and unification is the only goal.Kim believed China had instructed North Korea to cease nucleartest and provocations along the NLL/DMZ. ROK is monitoringrainfall in North Korea and considering aid with "no stringsattached." The ROKG is also watching the current politicalevents in Japan with interest. END SUMMARY.2. (C)EAP A/S Kurt Campbell met ROK Senior Secretary to thePresident for Foreign Affairs and National Security KimSung-hwan for 30 minutes on July 20. A/S Campbell emphasizedthe importance for close U.S.-ROK policy coordination towardsNorth Korea. NSA Kim said this is the first time North Koreais "feeling the sanctions" and realizing the consequences.--------POST KJI-------- 3. (S)On a possible North Korean government collapse, Kim said evenif something happens to Kim Jung-Il (KJI) the regime couldcontinue for sometime. Kim analyzed KJIs decision to appear inpublic since May in obvious poor health as a warning to NorthKoreas to prepare for change. In a post-KJI scenario, Kim saidthe regime could continue if they could unify and put togethersome type of collective leadership support, although there isno history of collective government. ROK intelligence sourceshave indicated that KJI is trying to slow down the successionprocess. While it is uncertain if the DPRK leadership willaccept Kim Jong-un as the "heir," there is always thepossibility of someone else being appointed "regent" until he"comes of age."4. (C)On possible post-regime collapse scenarios, Kim advised thataccording to the ROK Constitution, North Korea is part of theRepublic of Korea. Some scholars believe that if the Northcollapses, some type of "interim entity" will have to becreated to provide local governing and control travel of NorthKorean citizens. For Kim, there was no ambiguity: the DPRK isKorean territory and the goal remains unification. In thisscenario, Chinas reaction needs to be considered andsubstantial international assistance will be required. Kimnoted the benefits of ROK-Japan-U.S. trilateral cooperation,but stressed the need to get China to discuss contingencyplanning.--------------------CHINA AND DPRK NUKES-------------------- 5. (C)Speculating on Chinas reluctance to engage with the U.S. andROK, Kim said there are still those in power who supportedNorth Korea in the Korean War and these "blood ties" arestrong. Younger Chinese officials do not support current NorthKorean policy but would prefer to see direct U.S.-DPRK talkswhich would take the burden off of China. Kim said China wouldcertainly lose influence with North Korea if they supportedFive Party Talks.6. (C)Turning to North Koreas nuclear campaign, Kim said the NorthKoreans had not removed any facilities from the caves nearPunggyeri. However, he believed that the Chinese clearly toldthe North Koreans there could be no more nuclear tests.Coincidently, activities along the DMZ and NLL have been quietfor the last five weeks. Kim found it interesting that therehave been no further North Korean reactions to UN sanctions,beyond the demand for an apology from the UN, This action wasfurther proof of the weakness of the North Koran ForeignMinistry and was likely issued from another government entity.A/S Campbell asked if the ROK had other lines of communicationwith North Korean officials outside of the Ministry of ForeignAffairs channels. Kim said not only is there no other channelbut that the current channel is strained due to discussions onthe future of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. He said theNorth Koreans just want to talk about money and basically toldthe ROK to let them know "when South Korea is ready topay."(See reftel)7. (C)Kim said the ROK is monitoring rainfall in the Pyongyangregion and is concerned that flooding will damage crops,making humanitarian assistance necessary. If so, the ROK isconsidering providing "no conditions attached" food aid.-----JAPAN----- 8. (C)Regarding ROK-Japan-U.S. trilateral cooperation, A/S Campbellasked Kim for an assessment of ROK-Japan bilateral relations.Kim said Korea has good relations with the current governmentbut "history issues" (such as Dokdo) have complicated theagenda. A/S Campbell urged Kim to reach out to the newJapanese government soonest.STEPHENS